• gacor777
  • joker123
  • slot gacor
  • slot777
  • slot777
  • Monsoon Forecast: Yearly Fiasco
    •  Home
    • राजकीय
    • सामाजिक
    • सांस्कृतिक
    • English
    • ऑडिओ
    • व्हिडिओ
    • संकीर्ण
    • आमच्याविषयी
    चिकित्सा Hard(ikar) Talk Opinion

    Monsoon Forecast: Yearly Fiasco

    Surprisingly, the traditional almanack (Panchanga) has predicted a bad monsoon for this year.

    • Vinay Hardikar
    • 04 Jul 2022
    • 0 comments

    I have been following the BBC forecasts religiously and the monsoon is disobliging to those too. Day after day the BBC forecasts have shown clouds over India but there has been little or no rain. To make matters worse while rains are urgently needed in western ghats of Maharashtra which has a series of water reservoirs which take care of both the urban and rural needs there have been record-breaking downpours in the north eastern corner of the country — Cherrapunji — where the monsoon generally reaches in second week of July. It is common knowledge that the first kharip season is the lifeline for food and water in India. The country’s economy is already in dire straits- if the rains fail, it will be thrown into an abyss.

    Once again, the country’s meteorological department (IMD) has had to put its foot in its mouth: they predicted that this was a year of early monsoon and the monsoon  — a weather phenomenon unique to South Asia — refused to oblige! While the IMD claimed that the monsoon had arrived and covered large tracts of India, rains-heavy or light- were absent except in western states of south India. The IMD tried to explain it away — though unconvincingly — as the side effect of hot-air currents prevailing over the Arabian Sea. The haunting question is if the IMD was so vociferous in predicting an early, robust monsoon bringing above average rains, how and why did it fail in predicting hot air currents in a comparatively smaller area like the Arabian Sea? Prospects of a good, productive agricultural season are getting dim for at least Maharashtra: even as I write this the deficiency in rainfall is over sixty percent in the most productive kharip regions.

    And this is not the first time that the monsoon proved the IMD wrong. Remember R K Laxman  — the unique and most productive cartoonist of ToI? The IMD  — then simply called the weather bureau — was a favourite topic of his, Time and again he would show a typical bureaucrat dressed to the protocol getting drenched while all around him enjoyed the safety of umbrellas. The text would be somebody telling the Common Man – RK’s unique creation:’ He must be from the weather department.’

    Why is it that like news in general, English knowing Indians trust the BBC weather bulletin issued hourly instead of the highly flaunted forecasts of the IMD? Whenever the monsoon gives a lie to IMD long term forecast which is generally released around April eyebrows are raised; questions are asked if the initial IMD predictions were tampered with by political predilections! In our country even the providential fall of a sparrow is exploited politically. Both credit and blame fall on the PM and his government.  Our present NaMo is addicted to credit hogging (remember our national cricket team in orange -sic saffron- gear in a world tournament? It is another matter that we lost the match and the orange was shelved for good!) like his earlier avatar Indira Gandhi. Therefore, it should be an open secret that if the IMD was right, for once, and predicted a bad monsoon it must have been ‘advised’ to think twice. NaMo is already in big trouble-fresh variants of the Coronavirus, Kashmir, Agnipath, finding a hindu wife for the top office of the President-and would not want a bad monsoon forecast to consider as the opposition would start asking if the centre is ready for that eventuality.

    But this year the monsoon seems to be truer than before. I have been following the BBC forecasts religiously and the monsoon is disobliging to those too. Day after day the BBC forecasts have shown clouds over India but there has been little or no rain. To make matters worse while rains are urgently needed in western ghats of Maharashtra which has a series of water reservoirs which take care of both the urban and rural needs there have been record-breaking downpours in the north eastern corner of the country — Cherrapunji — where the monsoon generally reaches in second week of July. It is common knowledge that the first kharip season is the lifeline for food and water in India. The country’s economy is already in dire straits- if the rains fail, it will be thrown into an abyss.

    It is true that we still don’t know enough about what may or may not happen in far away skies, deep under earth and deep down oceans-astronomy, seismology and oceanology in jargon. Locally it is almost mandatory to point at global warming for all variations and fluctuations in the environment. Earthquakes and tsunamis are never predicted. Like Aldous Huxley said a hundred years ago our knowledge of these games of the Elements — rightly termed Maha Bhootas by our ancestors — is about equal to the height gain for the Eiffel Tower if a postage stamp were stuck on its top!

    Surprisingly, the traditional almanack — called Panchanga in Indian languages — has predicted a bad monsoon for this year. The Panchanga popular in this part of the country has categorically indicated that rainfall is going to be deficient this year. They attribute a mascot to each of the nine Nakshatras — constellations — of about four months of rains. Each Nakshtara has a time span of 12-14 days. Rainfall is to be expected according to whether the mascot likes or dislikes water/rains. The Nakshatras and their mascots for this year are as follows: for Mriga-donkey; for Aardraa-aries, the ram; for Punarvasu-mouse; for Pushya rabbit; for Ashleshaa-peacock; for Maghaa- horse; for Poorvaa-Aries; for Uttaraa-donkey and for Hasta-fox. Suffice it to say that only one Nakshtra has a rain-favouring mascot- peacock (frog, buffalo and elephant being the other three). That too suggests light rains (peacock dances in the showers) in a middle fortnight of rains according to the Panchanga logic.

    Admittedly, the Panchangas are not based on readings of observatories boasting of state of the art instruments. Their other limitation is that they can give only long range forecasts: unlike the modern observatories which can give an idea of what will happen over the next 36/48/72 hours or over the next week/fortnight/month. But they must be having some science of their own since they have an overwhelming presence of numbers which are calculated, presumably, according to the positions of the sun and the moon and other planets during the whole year-particularly during the rainy season in the present case. So many numbers just cannot be products of whim and imagination.

    Modern observers just dismiss all this as hocus-pocus. Some years back I had urged the world-famous astrophysicist Dr Jayant Narlikar to look into the Panchaangas: but an indifferent shrug was his response. I am not sure if any other weather scientist would respond differently.

    Mind you, I am not a traditionalist nor an obscurantist gloating over the omniscience of the Vedas for example and believing in the existence of airplanes and missiles in the battles in our two great epics. I know that those are cases of poetic license and poets’ imagination. But the Panchangas are no imaginary products: they could be imaginative based on the methods of ancients’ astrologists-the Arabs and the Indians. As such they need to be reconciled with modern methods of weather science.

    There is one more reason for this reconcilement of conventional wisdom with modern knowledge — a huge number of Indians believe in the advice of the Panchangas — farmers plan ploughing and sowing according to them; others look for auspicious days and hours for occasions like weddings, business startups, construction of buildings; and horoscopes are very much in vogue.

    Of late there is a clamour for recognition of conventional wisdom in seeds, medicine, traditional lifestyles including cooking, dress, housing and so on. Either claim —whether conventional methods are a science or just nonsense — can be established by one’s own experience. The issue in weather science cannot be settled by lay individuals because it is a huge unexplored area beyond the scope of the ordinary who can only follow the proverb — no complaint if the husband thrashes (feminists will pardon me); the king taxes and the rains drench you. Experts of rain-making have to look into this. I would like to remind the skeptics that the great Lokmanya Tilak was deeply interested in astrology (sic. Astrophysics) and often said that he would take up a thorough revision of the prevailing Panchagas after his political mission was over.

    Honestly, in my heart, I want the Panchangas to be proved wrong this year. In spite of advance intimation nobody would cherish the prospect of a drought. But I want their methods to be properly studied and proved right or wrong.

    - Vinay Hardikar
    vinay.freedom@gmail.com 

    (The writer has been working in the public sphere of Maharashtra for the last five decades. His versatile personality has several dimensions, but the primary ones remain to be that of an established writer, journalist, editor, critic, activist, and teacher.)

    Tags: Vinay Hardikar English Articles Panchanga weather forecast rain Farmers Load More Tags

    Add Comment

    संबंधित लेख

    लेख

    हाथरस टेस्टमध्ये सगळे फेल

    अभिषेक भोसले 13 Oct 2020
    लेख

    राहुल- राजीव, चुकीची कबुली द्यायला हवी !

    विनोद शिरसाठ 18 Apr 2020
    लेख

    कोरोनाच्या साथीचे मानसिक संसर्ग रोखण्यासाठी...

    डॉ. हमीद दाभोलकर 20 Mar 2020
    लेख

    Rahul-Rajeev must admit their mistake !

    Vinod Shirsath 18 Apr 2020
    लेख

    कहाणी दोन जोसेफची...

    डॅनिअल मस्करणीस 13 Oct 2021

    लेखकाचे इतर लेख

    Opinion

    Megalo-Modia: India’s Critical Blight!

    Vinay Hardikar
    16 Feb 2023
    Opinion

    Pak Smile : A Spanner in NaMo Wheel?

    Vinay Hardikar
    02 Feb 2023
    Opinion

    Of Sex, Sensex, and Sensation

    Vinay Hardikar
    01 Jan 2023
    Opinion

    T20 World Cup : Cricket wins T20 World Cup

    Vinay Hardikar
    20 Nov 2022
    Opinion

    Welcome Rishi Sunak : He Proved Churchill Wrong

    Vinay Hardikar
    01 Nov 2022
    Opinion

    Wheel comes Full Circle: anti-Congressism to anti-BJPism

    Vinay Hardikar
    03 Oct 2022
    Opinion

    Two Week Tragi-Comedy in England: Burial of Elizabeth-II

    Vinay Hardikar
    21 Sep 2022
    Tribute

    Mikhail Gorbachev: Man of Steel with Hands of Silk

    Vinay Hardikar
    03 Sep 2022
    Article

    Nitish Kumar’s déjà vu?

    Vinay Hardikar
    25 Aug 2022
    Opinion

    The Curse of Democracy?

    Vinay Hardikar
    29 Jul 2022
    Opinion

    Monsoon Forecast: Yearly Fiasco

    Vinay Hardikar
    04 Jul 2022
    Opinion

    Pseudo-Secularism versus Pseudo-Hindutva: India’s unenviable predicament

    Vinay Hardikar
    04 Jun 2022
    Opinion

    India and the Ukraine War: How to Manage the Dhoti?

    Vinay Hardikar
    04 May 2022
    Opinion

    Taking on the BJP…

    Vinay Hardikar
    26 Mar 2022
    Opinion

    Assembly Elections in Five States: Hysterical BJP and AAP; Crestfallen Opposition

    Vinay Hardikar
    18 Mar 2022
    Article

    How the Good turned into the Bad and the Ugly!

    Vinay Hardikar
    21 Feb 2022
    Opinion

    Arrival without Travel: India’s Constitutional Democracy

    Vinay Hardikar
    01 Feb 2022
    Opinion

    Farmers Agitation: Still No Light at the Other End of the Tunnel

    Vinay Hardikar
    02 Nov 2021
    Opinion

    Operation Daybreak: The Rise and Rise of Angela Merkel

    Vinay Hardikar
    07 Oct 2021
    Opinion

    Garrulity of the Lambs: India and Afghanistan

    Vinay Hardikar
    21 Sep 2021
    Opinion

    Do not Raise the Partition-Ghost!

    Vinay Hardikar
    28 Aug 2021
    लेख

    Tryst with Travesty of Democracy?

    Vinay Hardikar
    17 Aug 2021
    लेख

    Pegasus: Naya Jasoos?

    Vinay Hardikar
    07 Aug 2021
    लेख

    Taking the Bull by the Horn...

    Vinay Hardikar
    20 Jul 2021
    Opinion

    Maratha Reservation: Permanent Damp Squib?

    Vinay Hardikar
    09 Jul 2021
    लेख

    From Bear-Hugs to Beard

    Vinay Hardikar
    16 May 2021
    लेख

    Landscape after the Battle: Assembly Elections

    Vinay Hardikar
    08 May 2021
    लेख

    The Blame Game; Rather Tamely Worded

    Vinay Hardikar
    01 May 2021
    लेख

    Roll Back: Emerging Style of Governance?

    Vinay Hardikar
    10 Apr 2021
    लेख

    One Step forward; Two Steps Back

    Vinay Hardikar
    08 Apr 2021
    लेख

    COVID-19: Make haste, though there will be some waste!

    Vinay Hardikar
    13 Sep 2020
    लेख

    COVID-19: Heading towards cultural suspension

    Vinay Hardikar
    14 Sep 2020
    लेख

    COVID-19: What went wrong?

    Vinay Hardikar
    28 Aug 2020
    लेख

    COVID-19: Quo Vadis?

    Vinay Hardikar
    27 Aug 2020

    या आठवड्यातील लेख

    परिचय

    मुस्लीम मराठी साहित्याच्या दालनातील नव्या अभिव्यक्तीची कविता

    हरिश नवले
    22 Mar 2023
    ऑडिओ

    रभाजी कडलग

    संतोष पद्माकर पवार
    21 Mar 2023
    ऑडिओ

    'तात्पर्य'मधील पहिली कथा : आदर्श

    अवधूत डोंगरे
    20 Mar 2023
    लेख

    दलवाईंचा वैचारिक वारसा हेच मंडळाचे बलस्थान

    शमसुद्दीन तांबोळी
    19 Mar 2023
    Article

    It’s a Digital Dilemma Too

    Yogesh Borate
    17 Mar 2023
    व्हिडिओ

    'विज्ञानाने मला काय दिले?' या पुस्तकाच्या प्रकाशन समारंभातील भाषण

    विवेक सावंत
    10 Mar 2023
    व्हिडिओ

    डॉ. नरेंद्र दाभोलकर चित्र,शिल्प,कला प्रदर्शनात लक्ष्मीकांत देशमुख यांनी केलेले भाषण 

    लक्ष्मीकांत देशमुख
    09 Mar 2023

    लोकप्रिय लेख इतर सर्व

    व्यक्तिवेध

    गुड बाय सानिया!

    आ. श्री. केतकर
    03 Mar 2023
    व्हिडिओ

    वैज्ञानिक सत्य

    विनोद शिरसाठ
    01 Mar 2023
    व्हिडिओ

    'धर्मरेषा ओलांडताना'च्या निमित्ताने हिनाकौसर खान यांच्याशी संवाद

    हिनाकौसर खान
    27 Feb 2023
    लेख

    भारतातील ट्रॅमचा शतकोत्तर सुवर्ण महोत्सव

    आ. श्री. केतकर
    24 Feb 2023
    लेख

    ‘बीबीसी’ आणि ‘फॉरेन हँड’!

    दिलीप लाठी
    23 Feb 2023

    साधना साप्ताहिकाचा ताजा अंक

    18 मार्च 2023 चा अंक वाचण्यासाठी येथे क्लिक करा..


    साधना साप्ताहिकाचे वर्गणीदार व्हा

    साधना साप्ताहिकाचे डिटेल्स पाहण्यासाठी क्लिक करा...

    जाहिरात

    'केशवरावांच्या मुलाखती' हे पुस्तक खरेदी करण्यासाठी येथे क्लिक करा.

    'देव तेथेचि जाणावा' हे पुस्तक खरेदी करण्यासाठी येथे क्लिक करा.

    'आम्हा घरी धन' हे पुस्तक खरेदी करण्यासाठी येथे क्लिक करा.

    'असिधारा' हे पुस्तक खरेदी करण्यासाठी येथे क्लिक करा.

    'तीन संपादकांच्या मुलाखती' हे पुस्तक खरेदी करण्यासाठी येथे क्लिक करा.

    'धर्मरेषा ओलांडताना' हे पुस्तक खरेदी करण्यासाठी क्लिक करा.

    'सावध ऐका पुढल्या हाका' हे पुस्तक खरेदी करण्यासाठी येथे क्लिक करा.

    Tags

    • मुलाखत
    • दीर्घलेख
    • रिपोर्ताज
    • इंग्लिश
    • शेती
    • आरोग्य
    • शिक्षण
    • लेख
    • ऑडिओ
    • व्हिडिओ
    • विज्ञान
    • लेखमाला

    साधना साप्ताहिकाचे वर्गणीदार व्हा...

    वरील QR कोड स्कॅन अथवा UPI आयडीचा वापर करून आपण वर्गणीदार होऊ शकता. वार्षिक, द्वैवार्षिक व त्रैवार्षिक वर्गणी अनुक्रमे 1100, 2100, 3000 रुपये आहे. वर्गणीची रक्कम ट्रान्सफर केल्यानंतर आपले नाव, पत्ता, फ़ोन नंबर, इमेल इत्यादी तपशील
    020-24451724,7028257757 या क्रमांकावर फोन, SMS किंवा Whatsapp करून कळवणे आवश्यक आहे.

    weeklysadhana@gmail.com
    • वर्गणी
    • जाहिरात
    • देणगी
    • प्रतिसाद
    • चौकशी
    • पॉलिसी
    • नियम आणि अटी

    © 2019, Evonix Technologies Pvt. Ltd All rights reserved

    कृपया आम्हाला अभिप्राय द्या

    Welcome :

    Search Here....