Putin allowed Trump to rattle on without conceding a millimeter. His eyes stayed cold in stark contrast to the bonhomie of ‘next time in Moscow’ and ‘we are neighbours’ but both agreed that the discussions were cordially conducted and though they yielded nothing the overall mood was positive. The picnic like outing was over.

A week ago when India was just coming back to routine after the Independence Day euphoria (long week end lag?) the world was hot about Alaska-that distant, generally cold and closer to Russia American state. There was to be a head to head between the two most powerful nations - militarily and ideological removed: the US and Russia. Speculation was rife with present and former politicians, international relations experts, defence advisers, print and TV reporters/columnists vying to get on the band wagon. The future of the young state of Ukraine where Russia has waged an illegitimate (my word) war since 2022 against the illegitimate (Putin’s word) regime of Zelensky was to be decided at the short one day summit (actually it was over in a few hours like a short outing/picnic).

Everybody , especially the Ukrainians, Europeans, NATO members and peace lovers spread the world over, hoped (against hope in retrospect) that aggression and retaliation would cease, drones would rest, property would not be destroyed, soldiers’ lives would not be wasted and innocent citizens of Ukraine would sigh (in anguish without doubt) with relief. Most hopeful thought there would be a peace agreement; the lesser optimists set their eyes on a cease-fire; day-dreamers thought Donald would prevail over Vladimir and would even coax him into withdrawing his army to the pre-war border and Ukraine would be a NATO member-not just a buffer state between Europe and a resurgent, burgeoning post-Gorbachev Russia. 

All this was buried under the thick slab of hard Alaskan ice.

Looking back after a week the summit appears like a phantom pregnancy! The gestation period was admittedly short with Trump dropping hints May onwards but in spite of the (carefully acted out) labour pains there was not even a pre mature baby (of peace). Nothing emerged; the womb of diplomacy remained as sterile as before. Trump, earlier insisting on an immediate ceasefire suddenly got wise to change his position that cease fire without a deal would serve no purpose. He further dashed Ukraine’s hopes by dropping the hint that there would have to be a three-party meeting – himself, Putin and Zelensky - to reconsider the map of Ukraine; in effect the Russian armed forces would stay put at the present position. Remember Korea and the 38th parallel? Remember the Berlin wall which up in a day?

Putin allowed Trump to rattle on without conceding a millimeter. His eyes stayed cold in stark contrast to the bon hommie of ‘next time in Moscow’ and ‘we are neighbours’ but both agreed that the discussions were cordially conducted and though they yielded nothing the overall mood was positive. The picnic like outing was over. Both taking leave on the red carpet - Trump towering over Putin only physically; the latter continued his sly smile; a pat on the back, a quick hand clasp and adieu! The show got over before it started. Till next time - even as nobody is sure when that will be. Trump bluntly stating there is no deal unless there is a deal; ruling out Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO and US army in Ukraine; only concession being Ukraine’s peace security could be pondered after the map was redrawn (to Russia’s preference). Putin, much to Trump’s chagrin, going home triumphantly; Russia is back in world politics with the pre-Gorbachev gruff, adamant, push the opponent to the limit diplomacy(?).

Zelensky was aghast! NATO dumb founded! West Europe in a quandary! A meeting with Washington was sought immediately! Heads of France, Germany, Italy, Finland (always under Russian penumbra) and EU wasted no time in starting perhaps another phantom pregnancy; to coax Trump somehow to pressure Putin to sit with Zelensky - a pipe dream, if at all! This time the fetus has stopped growing after security guarantees (with a lot of small print) for Ukraine in exchange of allowing Russia to keep what it has occupied. Trump is serving interests of both US and Russia; a $ 90 bn deal is in the offing for Ukraine!

Ukraine-Russia War Frontlines
It goes without saying that the world would sympathise with Zelensky, a lamb caught between two seasoned wolves with limitless cunning. Take Putin; he insists that Zelensky’s regime is illegitimate because his term ended in 2023. True; but it is a fact that hadn’t Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022 there would be no need for Martial Law and there would have been fresh elections which Zelensky would have won or lost? Similarly, Trump keeps Zelensky on a leash - only slightly long when he assures security guarantees after Zelensky agrees to let Russian armies stay put and perhaps the arms deal with US is signed but categorically rejects chances of NATO membership for or actually sending American troups to Ukraine. One suspects that Ukraine’s major European supporters - France, Germany, Italy too would avoid irritating Putin beyond a limit and will insist on a Zelensky-Putin summit-with or without Trump and a peace agreement even as Lavrov has refuted (only yesterday) a bi-partite meeting with Ukraine - now or in near future.

Remember Poland in 1939 when the would-be allies waited till Hitler had actually sent tanks to destroy the Polish cavalry and Poland’s battle was as good as lost? In short, Zelensky has to steer his own ship through the narrow strait Putin-Trump have created. Take peace guarantees for example. Ukraine is a big country by European standards with a 1000 km long (land)line of conflict thanks to Russia. Plus it is vulnerable through the Black Sea in the South. Then there is the challenge of air security since drone warfare is the current fashion. Worse still, it would be inoperative unless air forces of Ukraine-friendly European states are ordered to shoot down Russian fighter-bombers and drones!

Something rather strange at Alaska has not got much attention. The one-on-one meeting between heads of state happened right at the start of this summit. Why, I wonder. Was it a pre-official discussion attempt testing each other’s strength? Flexing muscles? Or had Trump and Putin ‘arrived without travelling’ to go by the outcome where both reiterated their positions, made their own speeches and allowed no questions from the world media? Had Putin categorically told Trump (not in so many words but by strong implication) ‘nothing doing on Ukraine’ and added ‘you will only make your own position awkward if you insist since I am not moving from where Me and my army stand at the moment’? Had they further came to a mutual tacit deal—Russia would not dabble in Israel- HAMAS conflict and US should not toy with the Ukraine. If that was really the case, no wonder they just went through with rehearsed motions in the following hours of the (no commit) Summit cordially and positively having fun at Ukraine and other NATO members- Zelensky and his European peers… Shakespeare says in King Lear: as flies to wanton boys, we are to the Gods. They kill us for (their) sport! Are the two demigods taking the world back to the Cold War? 

Also Read - झेलेन्स्कींच्या रूपाने जगाला ‘ज्यू’ नायक कसा मिळाला? गॅल बेकरमन

I am not the one to blame Glibralisation (my coinage) for every fresh imbroglio faced by the international community but I suspect that smaller and more advanced nation like Ukraine have become more vulnerable after two decades of the New Economic Order. When the USSR came apart between 1989-91 Ukraine was fairly ahead of other member states without doubt but Russia did not bother to reclaim it. It was only after three decades of globalization and almost two decades of Putin at the helm that the technological advances made by the already agriculturally sound Ukraine made itself an envy and also an easy target for Putin’s Russia. 

It is not just coincidence that Zelensky looks dimuntitive when he stands among the giants of world politics: it is a metaphor for the young nation of Ukraine. The more developed a small nation, greater chances of it attracting first envy and then direct aggression by a larger neighbor? Be that as it may, testing times ahead for Vlodymor. He will have to hear all but listen to few; Shakespeare again, from Hamlet for a change.

- Vinay Hardikar
vinay.freedom@gmail.com  
(The writer has been working in the public sphere of Maharashtra for the last five decades. His versatile personality has several dimensions, but the primary ones remain to be that of an established writer, journalist, editor, critic, activist, and teacher.)

P.S. I have not touched upon in this column the tariff threat that looms large on India. Let me assure my readers, it is not by omission. I have a lot to say on that and withhold for the moment because there is going to be a high-power meeting between and US in the last week of this month.
 

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